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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”