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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a strong position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" in August if Russia's president continued obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump finally imposed considerable penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that same sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump seems to view the war as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing model for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in position the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he later decide to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would facilitate future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Every extremist ideology and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we believe Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Response

A separate supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not