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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.