Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.